Brent Archer
Virginia, US - http://www.investorsobserver.com
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
Posted Nov 21st 2008 1:48PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Options, Technical Analysis
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:
BMY -
option chain) shares are falling today after
the European Medicines Agency said it has rejected a request by BMY to market its breast cancer drug Ixempra. The agency said the increase in survival rates using the drug was not significant enough to warrant approval. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BMY.
This morning, BMY opened at $18.92. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.12 and a high of $19.30. As of 12:15, BMY is trading at $18.60, down $0.68 (3.5%). The chart for BMY looks bullish and
S&P gives BMY a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four weeks as long as BMY is below $22.50 at December expiration. Bristol-Myers would have to rise by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
TGT hasn't been above $45 since early September and shown resistance around $21.50 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in BMY.Posted Nov 20th 2008 1:11PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Good news, Technical Analysis, Politics, Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Northrop Grumman (NYSE:
NOC -
option chain) shares have moved higher today after with other large defense contractors after President Bush and Defense Secretary Gates recommended that President-elect Obama
increase overall defense spending for at least the next five years. This comes just one day after NOC CEO Ron Sugar said that he
expects steady spending for at least the next two years. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NOC.
NOC opened this morning at $36.80. So far today the stock has hit a low of $35.24 and a high of $38.05. As of 12:35, NOC is trading at $37.70, up 90 cents (2.4%). The chart for NOC looks bullish and
S&P gives NOC a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just one month as long as NOC is above $30 at December expiration. NOC would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.
NOC hasn't been below $35 at all in the past year and has shown support around $35.25 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NOC.Posted Nov 19th 2008 2:15PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Good news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, Teva Pharm Indus ADR (TEVA)
Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:
TEVA -
option chain) shares have moved higher today after
the Food & Drug Administration approved the company's generic version Pulmicort, an asthma drug made by competitor
AstraZeneca (NYSE:
AZN). If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TEVA.
TEVA opened this morning at $43.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $42.55 and a high of $43.78. As of 12:25, TEVA is trading at $42.84, up $0.65 (1.5%). The chart for TEVA looks bullish and
S&P gives TEVA a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January
bull-put credit spread below the $35 range.
Continue reading Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) asthma drug approved
Posted Nov 18th 2008 2:15PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Forecasts, Bad news, Options, Technical Analysis
Medtronic (NYSE:
MDT -
option chain) shares are way lower today after
the company posted a second-quarter profit of $571 million, or 51 cents per share. The company's adjusted profit of 67 cents per share missed analysts' estimates of 71 cents per share. MDT also lowered their fiscal-2009 EPS forecast by about 3% on both the high and low ends. None of this is helping the stock today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MDT.
This morning, MDT opened at $34.49. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.25 and a high of $35.48. As of 12:30, MDT is trading at $32.24, down $4.18 (11.5%). The chart for MDT looks neutral and
S&P gives MDT a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January
bear-call credit spread above the $42.50 range.
Continue reading Medtronic (MDT) sunk by earnings miss, lower outlook
Posted Nov 17th 2008 12:50PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Options, Technical Analysis, Eaton Corp (ETN)
Eaton (NYSE:
ETN -
option chain) shares have soared higher today after
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:
BRK.A) disclosed in an SEC filing Friday afternoon that
it has bought 2.91 million shares of ETN over the past six months. Usuall,y when announcements like this are made, investors follow the Oracle of Omaha and send the stock higher. If you think the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ETN.
ETN opened this morning at $42.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.48 and a high of $43.35. As of 12:25, ETN is trading at $43.49, up $2.34 (5.7%). The chart for ETN looks neutral and
S&P gives ETN a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just five weeks as long as ETN is above $30 at December expiration. Eaton would have to fall by more than 30% before we would start to lose money.
ETN hasn't been below $37 at all in the past year and has shown support around $39 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ETN or Berkshire.Posted Nov 14th 2008 3:11PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Good news, Insiders, Options, Technical Analysis
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:
C) shares are lower today, dragged down by the overall market. However, it has been reported that
CEO Vikram Pandit and another big shot at C have recently purchased a combined one million shares of the bank's stock. These guys may just be making a big show of confidence, but it is still roughly $9M on the line in these transactions. If you think that insider buying means the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on C.
C opened this morning at $9.76. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.79 and a high of $10.11. As of 1:55, C is trading at $9.19, down 0.26 (-2.8%). The chart for C looks bearish and
S&P gives C a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $5 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 10.1% return in just five weeks as long as C is above $5 at December expiration. Citi would have to fall by more than 45% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
C hasn't been below $8 at all in the past year and has shown support around $8.25 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in C.
Posted Nov 14th 2008 1:32PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Industry, Motorola (MOT), Nokia Corp. (NOK), Research in Motion (RIMM), QUALCOMM Inc (QCOM), Options, Technical Analysis
Nokia (NYSE:
NOK -
option chain) shares are falling today after the company warned that the global mobile phone market will weaken in 2009.
NOK forecast global handset sales of 1.24 billion phones in 2009, down from a previous estimate of 1.26 billion. The entire industry is taking a hit today from this announcement including competitors like
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:
RIMM) and
Motorola (NYSE: MOT) as well as suppliers such as
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:
QCOM). If you think this Nokia won't be rising too far in the coming months of economic headwinds, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NOK.
This morning, NOK opened at $12.43. So far today the stock has hit a low of $12.22 and a high of $12.97. As of 12:40, NOK is trading at $12.57, down $1.58 (11.2%). The chart for NOK looks neutral and
S&P gives NOK a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bear-call credit spread above the $15 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in five weeks as long as NOK is below $15 at December expiration. Nokia would have to rise by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NOK, RIMM, MOT, or QCOM.Posted Nov 13th 2008 1:32PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Options, Technical Analysis
Wyeth (NYSE:
WYE -
option chain) shares have moved higher today after
the FDA approved the usage of the company's PREMARIN to treat moderate to severe postmenopausal dyspareunia, which is just a clinical way of saying
painful sexual intercourse. Helping treat that sounds like a good thing to me. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WYE.
WYE opened this morning at $32.68. So far today the stock has hit a low of $32.68 and a high of $34.29. As of 12:45, WYE is trading at $33.70, up $1.26 (3.9%). The chart for WYE looks neutral and
S&P gives WYE a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in just five weeks as long as WYE is above $27.50 at December expiration. Wyeth would have to fall by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
WYE hasn't been below $28 at all in the past year and has shown support around $30 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WYE.Posted Nov 12th 2008 3:50PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Options, Technical Analysis
Diana Shipping (NYSE:
DSX) shares have been sinking today after
the company announced it will suspend dividend payments after December. DSX had been paying a 25.30% annual dividend rate. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on DSX.
This morning, DSX opened at $12.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.28 and a high of $11.01. As of 2:35, DSX is trading at $10.96, down $2.97 (21.3%). The chart for DSX looks bearish.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November
bear-call credit spread above the $12.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in ten days as long as DSX is below $12.50 at November expiration. DSX would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at
Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in DSX.Posted Nov 11th 2008 1:04PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Options, Technical Analysis
State Street (NYSE:
STT -
option chain) shares are moving higher today despite the markets being in the toilet again. This could be because STT is one of the companies that are getting cash from the government.
STT will receive a $2 billion cash injection from the federal government in return for non-voting senior preferred stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on STT.
STT opened this morning at $40.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $40.63 and a high of $44.93. As of 12:20, STT is trading at $41.61, up 0.38 (0.9%). The chart for STT looks neutral and
S&P gives STT a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $25 range.
Continue reading State Street (STT) should benefit from bailout plan
Posted Nov 10th 2008 1:01PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Good news, Industry, FedEx Corp (FDX), United Parcel'B' (UPS), Options, Technical Analysis
United Parcel Service (NYSE:
UPS -
option chain) and
FedEx (NYSE:
FDX) shares are getting a lift after competitor
Deutsche Post AG announced it will close all DHL Express service centers in the U.S. Since UPS has been the steadier of the two survivors over the past year, I am more interested in a trade on that stock. If you think that UPS won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on the stock.
UPS opened this morning at $53.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $52.80 and a high of $55.01. As of 12:45, UPS is trading at $53.53, up $1.61 (3.1%). The chart for UPS looks neutral and
S&P gives UPS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $40 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just six weeks as long as UPS is above $40 at December expiration. UPS would have to fall by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
UPS hasn't been below $40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in UPS nor FDX.Posted Nov 7th 2008 1:11PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Good news, Options, Technical Analysis
Fluor (NYSE:
FLR -
option chain) shares have soared higher today after
the company reported a third-quarter profit of $183.1 million, or $1.01 per share, easily surpassing analysts' estimates of 91 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on FLR.
FLR opened this morning at $38.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.67 and a high of $43.99. As of 12:40, FLR is trading at $42.26, up $8.25 (24.2%). The chart for FLR looks bullish and
S&P gives FLR a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just six weeks as long as FLR is above $25 at December expiration. Fluor would have to fall by more than 40% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
FLR hasn't been below $28 at all in the past year and has shown support around $33 recently.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in FLR.Posted Nov 6th 2008 1:39PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Industry, Target Corp. (TGT), Options, Technical Analysis
Target (NYSE:
TGT -
option chain) shares are falling today after
the company reported a 4.8 percent decline in October same-store sales this morning, worse than the 2.8 percent predicted by analysts. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TGT.
This morning, TGT opened at $37.11. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.74 and a high of $39.11. As of 12:25, TGT is trading at $36.77, down 98 cents (2.6%). The chart for TGT looks neutral and
S&P gives TGT a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November
bear-call credit spread above the $45 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in two weeks as long as TGT is below $45 at November expiration. Target would have to rise by more than 22% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade
here.
TGT has been above $45 as recently as early October but has fallen sharply since and shown resistance around $42 over the past month.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TGT.Posted Nov 5th 2008 1:45PM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis
ArcelorMittal (NYSE:
MT -
option chain) shares have dropped sharply after the company announced it will
cut steel production globally by 30% during the fourth quarter due to declining prices and sluggish growth. MT had previously announced a 15% production cut earlier this year. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on MT or another steel manufacturer.
This morning, MT opened at $26.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $25.73 and a high of $27.52. As of 12:25, MT is trading at $26.16, down $5.54 (17.5%). The chart for MT looks bearish.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December
bear-call credit spread above the $40 range.
Continue reading ArcelorMittal (MT) doubles production cut to 30%
Posted Nov 5th 2008 7:15AM by Brent Archer
Filed under: Good news, Industry, Options, Technical Analysis, Politics, Stocks to Buy, Obama Picks

Looking for stocks that should benefit now that Senator Obama is officially President-Elect Obama? Many investors believe that liberals negatively impact stock markets in general and that the only companies to benefit from a liberal adminstration are those that stand to get tax breaks or incentives.
Personally, I don't believe that the market is going to go to hell in a handbasket just because Obama is now officially 'the man.' We have had some real rough times already and there are quite a few bargain stocks out there. An Obama victory looked more and more certain in the weeks approaching Election Day. There should not be a big negative reaction, because the markets will have already priced in the high likelihood of an Obama win. That being said, there should still be certain industries and stocks that are boosted more than others.
My pick for a strong industry under President Obama is the biotechnology sector, specifically those companies that work with stem cells. While not a major issue through the election cycle,
Obama has generally favored the removal of federal stem cell restrictions, including research on embryonic stem cells. A few years ago, the
Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2005 was approved by both the House and Senate, but vetoed by President Bush. The House failed in its attempt to override the veto.
Obama voted in favor of the measure in the Senate and it is not a stretch to think that in the next two years with a Democratically-controlled Congress that a similar measure would be brought up and passed without much opposition.
Osiris Therapeutics (NASDAQ:
OSIR -
option chain) is a leader in the stem cell industry, and currently uses cells harvested from adult bone marrow. OSIR has recently partnered with
Genzyme (NASDAQ:
GENZ-
option chain) to sell two of its developing drugs internationally. OSIR retains the rights to these therapies in the US and in Canada.
OSIR received $130M up front for these rights, but the agreement calls for more payments (up to $1.25B) depending on future sales.

Continue reading Obama Pick: Buy Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR)
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